Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz is going down on Saturday. And at least one of those guys wants to be there. The promotion for this one has been lacklustre to say the least and I just checked the trending traffic on Paul’s name and it appears as though it is done about five times less than it did prior to his last fight (which he lost to Tommy Fury).

Diaz came into this one hoping for a payday, but he might be about to learn that, unlike with the UFC, you can’t just show up. You need to actually promote the fight.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz staff picks and predictions

Even so, we at BE have looked over the top fights on the event and decided who we think will get their hands raised. And guess what? We think Diaz might be heading out of Dallas a loser. The vast majority of us are picking hobbyist Jake Paul, who has at least been around the block a few times now, to beat the pro-boxing debutante.

Scroll down to see our reasoning and also see who we picked for Amanda Serrano vs. Heather Hardy, William Silva vs. Ashton Sylve and Jeremy Stephens vs. Chris Avila.

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz staff picks and predictions

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz

Anton: Jake Paul isn’t very good and still makes a lot of beginner mistakes, especially when it comes to dealing with pressure and volume. If this happened a few years ago, I wouldn’t have hesitated to pick Nate to win this type of match up.

It’s 2023 though, and I think Diaz is far enough removed from his prime that his trademark cardio and durability isn’t the same, and he will struggle to beat someone that is a lot bigger and a lot stronger than him. For all his skill deficiencies, Paul has legit power, is usually in shape, and will have a huge size and strength advantage here. I hope I’m dead wrong, but I think this will look sad. Jake Paul by KO.

Zane: Nothing about any of the conversations, training footage, or their careers in general has me filled with confidence that Nate Diaz is ready for a professional boxing match with an opponent who will show up in good shape and reasonably prepared.

Is Jake Paul God’s gift to boxing? Hell no. He’s operating at baseline competency. But, it’s also clear that he’s putting in a lot of work to get better all the time, and has steadily improved. Diaz seems to be banking on the idea that because he’s spent a lot of time sparring without any intention of boxing, then he’s ready for the real thing on the night. Jake Paul via TKO, round 4.

Tim: Nate’s here to get paid. I don’t think he knows if he can beat Jake Paul in a boxing match and I don’t think he’s that interested in finding out. I think he’s going to stink up the ring with passivity and holding. Paul is a one trick pony with no ability to work himself into range, so this will be a prolonged staring match. Paul might land a clean shot, but I doubt it can hurt Diaz’s chin. Diaz might land some pot shots, but I doubt he commits to them enough to hurt Paul. Get ready for a very uneventful unanimous decision for Paul. Jake Paul via decision

Victor: Look man, Nate already won. He got out of his UFC contract by dodging a bullet the size of fucking Banzai Bill and how he’s probably gonna make more money than all his UFC paydays combined. Now, he’s not gonna half-ass this and do a Ben Askren.

He’s going to show up in shape and doesn’t have to worry about getting leg kicked to death or outwrestled (plus the legendary ultra-marathoner cardio). But he’s also undersized and closer to 40 against a guy that hits hard and is a hell of an athlete. Sure, Nate’s trained with pro boxers in the past, but this may be a bit much. And I also don’t care. I’ll go with the upset because what have I really got to lose? Let’s hope Nate pulls a rabbit out of a hat and lumps this moron for my petty personal enjoyment. Nate Diaz by decision. 

Chris: Wut? Nate Diaz, 209! Wut wut? Get that bag homie. 

Staff picking Paul: Zane, Chris, Tim, Eddie, Stephie, Kristen, Lucas, Anton
Staff picking Diaz: Victor

Amanda Serrano vs. Heather Hardy

Zane: Heather Hardy couldn’t beat Serrano when she was 37 and the sitting champ. Now she’s 41 and hasn’t fought in two years. Amanda Serrano via TKO round 8.

Tim: I don’t think Hardy is in this spot for sporting achievements alone. She’s fought twice in the last four years, one time a decision loss to Serrano. Serrano seems to be getting better with age (for now) and, considering she almost beat Katie Taylor last year, she should have far too much for Hardy at this stage of their careers. Amanda Serrano via KO.

April 22, 2023, San Juan, San Juan, Puerto Rico: 22 de Abril del 2023 Catao±o PR gimnasio de Boxeo. Felix Pintor visita de Jake Paul. Y. Amanda Serrano organizado por la OMB San Juan Puerto Rico *** April 22, 2023, San Juan, San Juan, Puerto Rico April 22, 2023 Catao±o PR Boxing Gym Felix Pintor visit of Jake Paul and Amanda Serrano organized by the WBO San Juan Puerto Rico PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY - ZUMAd69_ 20230422_zaa_d69_002 Copyright: xDavidxVillafane Staffx
Jake Paul and Amanda Serrano. IMAGO / ZUMA / David Villafane

Victor: Serrano is too much for Hardy. I’ve seen them both fight in person and Hardy isn’t just slower, she’s content to eat too much punishment. Amanda Serrano by TKO.

Chris: Stupid ass coin, making me look like a dummy. Hardy is gonna get worked. 

Staff picking Serrano: Zane, Tim, Victor, Eddie, Stephie, Kristen, Lucas
Staff picking Hardy: Chris

William Silva vs. Ashton Sylve

Zane: William Silva is probably a big step up from anyone Sylve has faced before and looks like the much more technical fighter. He also just doesn’t seem to have much pop in his punches and has been used as a stepping stone for other young prospects before. My guess is that Sylve doesn’t look that great against him, but gets the nod anyway, because it’s a fight he’s supposed to win. Ashton Sylve by decision.

Boxing: Sylve vs Rodriguez Oct 29, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Ashton Sylve is declared the winner by knock out against Braulio Rodriguez at Desert Diamond Arena. Glendale Desert Diamond Arena Arizona USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xMarkxJ.xRebilasx 20221029_gav_su5_131
Ashton Sylve getting his hand raised. IMAGO/USA TODAY

Tim: Ashton Sylve is one of Jake Paul’s pet projects. And Paul seems to have gotten smart enough at this game that he won’t let his top prospect get beaten on the biggest card he’s ever put together. Syvle is quick, young and all kinds of motivated. Silva is over the crest of his career, though still the most experienced and talented fighter Sylve has ever seen. Even so, I think Sylve will be able to come through this test with a win, albeit perhaps a lacklustre one. Ashton Sylve via decision

Staff picking Silva:
Staff picking Sylve: Zane, Chris, Tim, Victor, Eddie, Stephie, Kristen, Lucas, Anton

Chris Avila vs. Jeremy Stephens

Zane: Jeremy Stephens did alright against Jose Aldo in his boxing debut, which has me feeling like he’ll probably do alright here too. But Avila’s been putting a lot more time into this career already. Chris Avila by decision.

Tim: I’m borrowing Chris’ coin for this one. Jeremy Stephens via TKO

November 25, 2022, New York, NY, New York, NY, United States: NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 23: (L-R) Jeremy Stephens punches Natan Schulte during the 2022 PFL Championship at the Hulu Theatre inside Madison Square Garden in NYC. November 23, 2022 in New York, NY, United States. New York, NY United States - ZUMAp175 20221125_zsa_p175_034 Copyright: xMattxDaviesx
Jeremy Stephens in MMA action last year. IMAGO/ZUMA Wire

Victor: Avila seems kinda clunky and Stephens still packs some major power. Jeremy Stephens by TKO.

Staff picking Avila: Zane, Kristen, Lucas
Staff picking Stephens: Chris, Tim, Victor, Eddie, Stephie, Anton

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About the author
Tim Bissell
Tim Bissell

Tim Bissell is a writer, editor and deputy site manager for Bloody Elbow. He has covered combat sports since 2015. Tim covers news and events and has also written longform and investigative pieces. Among Tim's specialties are the intersections between crime and combat sports. Tim has also covered head trauma, concussions and CTE in great detail.

Tim is also BE's lead (only) sumo reporter. He blogs about that sport here and on his own substack, Sumo Stomp!

Email me at tim@bloodyelbow.com. Nice messages will get a response.

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